滁州市精细化暴雨洪涝风险区划

依据自然灾害风险分析理论，用统计回归方法，结合GIS技术得出滁州市暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划图。以精细到60个自动站降雨量为暴雨致灾因子，以滁州地势为孕灾环境因子，以乡镇人口、经济、耕地面积为承载体因子，以乡镇经济和农田水利措施为抗灾能力因子，采用专家打分法确定暴雨洪涝综合风险指数。结果表明：暴雨洪涝灾害高风险区主要位于滁州市区各乡镇街道、沙河镇和腰铺镇，来安县的新安镇、施官镇和三城乡西北部，天长市的天长街道和永丰镇，全椒县的十字镇、襄河镇、六镇镇东南部、武冈镇和二郎口镇的南部，定远县的定成镇，凤阳县的府城镇、临淮关镇和枣巷镇，明光市的中心街道、苏巷镇和女山湖镇。以上地区暴雨洪涝危险系数较高，是滁州全市防灾减灾的重点区域。

Refined Risk Zoning of Rainstorm and Flood Disasters in Chuzhou

Natural disaster risk analysis theory, statistical regression method, GIS technology were used to draw risk zoning map of rainstorm and flood disaster in Chuzhou. Precipitation from 60 automatic stations was as to disaster causing factor, terrain height in Chuzhou was as to disaster environment, town’s population, GDP and farming area were as to hazard-affected body, economy and water conservancy measures in farmland were as to prevention capability, comprehensive risk index of the rainstorm and flood could be presented with the method of expert evaluation. The result showed that: high risk areas were located at all streets in Chuzhou; Shahe and Yaopu; Xin’an, Shiguanand the northwest part of Sancheng in Laian; Tianchang street and Yongfeng in Tianchang; Shizi, Xianghe, the southeast part of Liuzhen, the south part of Wugang and Erlangkou in Quanjiao; the center of Dingcheng in Dingyuan; Fucheng, Linhuaiguan and Zaoxiang in Fengyang; center street, Suxiang, Nvshanhu in Mingguang. With the large population density, the high vulnerability and the weak ability of disaster prevention, the above areas had high risk rate of rainstorm and flood. They had become the most important areas of disaster prevention and mitigation.