福建省植物物候期对气候变化的响应 |
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引用本文: | 杨丽慧,吴滨,马佳嘉. 福建省植物物候期对气候变化的响应[J]. 中国农学通报, 2016, 32(35): 139-150. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16080152 |
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作者姓名: | 杨丽慧 吴滨 马佳嘉 |
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作者单位: | 福建省气候中心,福建省气候中心,福建省气候中心 |
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基金项目: | 福建省科技计划项目引导性项目“沿海城市风环境特征及通风廊道研究”(2016Y01010045);福建省气象局青年科技专项项目“南半球关键 系统的低频演变特征对福建省前汛期降水的影响(2015q18)”;福建省气象局青年科技专项项目“楝树、乌桕两种植物物候对福建省气候变化的响应 研究”(2011q04)。 |
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摘 要: | 为揭示福建省植物物候期对气候变化的敏感性,基于福建省18个农业气象试验站气象资料(1961—2015年)及植物物候期资料,采用一元线性回归、多元逐步回归和M-K突变检验方法,探讨福建省植物物候期对气候变化的响应。结果表明:(1)近55年福建省年平均气温以0.18℃/10 a速率极显著上升,年降水量变化不明显,年日照时数以65.49 h/10 a的速率呈极显著下降趋势;(2)福建省不同植物各物候期的变化趋势存在差异,乌桕春季物候期普遍以(3.57~29.27) d/10 a的速率呈一致提前趋势,楝树、桂花、木棉春季物候期呈延迟趋势,秋季物候期变化规律不一致,各植物生长季均有所延长;(3)影响乌桕展叶始期关键气象因子是2 月、3 月平均温度(T2、T3)、日照时数(S2、S3)及秋末冬初的极端高温(Tmax秋末冬初),影响其落叶始关键气象因子为冬初(降水量、日照时数、极端高温)或物候期前2—3 月的平均气温、降水量,影响楝树展叶盛关键因子是Tmax2、T3、S2、R4,影响楝树落叶始关键气象因子为4 月、5 月、10 月降水量,影响木棉开花始和桂花展叶始的关键气象因子分别是Tmax上11和T2。植物物候期对气候变化的响应比较敏感,其突变点一般早于或同步于各气候因子的突变点,可作为气候变化的指示器。
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关 键 词: | 甘蔗 甘蔗 大螟 地统计学 空间格局 |
收稿时间: | 2016-08-31 |
修稿时间: | 2016-12-07 |
Response of Plant Phenophase to Climate Change in Fujian |
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Abstract: | The paper aims to reveal the sensitivity of plant phenophase to climate change in Fujian. Based on the meteorological data of 18 agricultural meteorological stations from 1961 to 2015 and the phenophase for woody plants. The response of plant phenophase to climate change was investigated by using the methods of linear regression, multiple stepwise regression and M-K mutation testing. The results showed that: (1) the annual average temperature increased at the rate of 0.18℃/10 a, the annual precipitation trends was not obvious, and the annual sunshine hours decreased significantly at the rate of 65.49 h/10 a; (2) the changing trend of plant phenophase varied in Fujian, the phenophase of Chinese tallow (Sapium sebiferum) in spring advanced at the rate of (3.57-29.27) d/10 a, while the phenophase of Neem (Melia azedarach), Sweet Osmanthus (Osmanthus fragrans) and Kapok (Gossampinus malasarica) in spring were delayed slightly, all of the phenophase in autumn were not consistent; and the phenophase during plant growing season prolonged; (3) the key meteorological factors influencing the initial stage of development of Chinese tallow were average temperature in Feburary (T2), average temperature in March (T3), sunshine duration in Feburary (S2), sunshine hours in March (S3) and the extreme temperature in late autumn and early winter; the key meteorological fators affecting the deciduous leaves were the average temperature and precipitation in the beginning of winter (precipitation, sunshine hours, extreme high temperature) or the period from Feburary to March; and the key factors affecting the growth of the leaves of Neem were Tmax2, T3, S2 and R4; the key meteorological factors influencing the deciduous leaves of Neem were precipitation in April, May and October; the key mtetorological factors affecting Kapok at flower beginning period and Sweet Osmanthus at leaves beginning were was extreme temperature in November of last year, and the average temperature in February, respectively. In general, the response of plant phenophase to climate change was more sensitive, and the mutation points of plant phenophase were usually early or synchronized with the mutation points of various meteorological factors, which can be used as indicator of climate change. |
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Keywords: | climate change plant phenophase mutation response |
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