蜂农对天气变化的感知及其影响因素——以四川省为例

通过对四川省5个县蜂农的问卷调查,基于社会认知模型(MPPACC)分析框架,采用有序Probit模型,分析了蜂农对天气变化的感知度及其影响因素。结果显示,蜂农对于天气变化的敏感性感知、严重性感知较强,适应功效感知、自我效能感知较弱,感知到的适应成本较高;蜂农对免费天气变化信息的获取、获取渠道的多少、与其他蜂农交流的频率以及养蜂人数等均会影响蜂农对天气变化的感知,其中,免费天气信息的获取对蜂农敏感性感知、适应性功效感知、自我效能感知以及适应成本感知影响最为显著。最后,从拓宽蜂农获取天气信息的渠道、鼓励其加入农民合作组织以及增强蜂农之间的交流等方面,提出了提高蜂农对天气变化感知能力、增强应对天气变化能力的相关建议。

Beekeepers' perception of climate change and its influencing factors: a case study of Sichuan Province

Based on questionnaire data on beekeepers in five counties in Sichuan Province, we use model of proactive adaptation to climate change (MPPACC) framework and ordered Probit model to analyze the beekeepers' perception of climate change and its influencing factors. The results showed that the sensitivity perception and the severity perception of climate change of the beekeepers were stronger, while the efficacy perception and self-efficacy perception were weaker and the perceived adaptive cost was higher. Factors such as acquisition and accesses to free weather information, communication frequency to other beekeepers, the number of beekeepers in the family etc. have significant influence on beekeepers' perception of climate change. Especially, acquisition to free climate change information and the sensitivity perception, adaptive efficiency perception, self-efficacy perception and adaptive cost perception were the most significant factors. Finally, considering the needs to broaden beekeepers' accesses to climate information, we put forward suggestions to improve beekeepers' perception and response capacity towards climate change, such as encouraging participation of beekeepers' cooperatives and promoting communications among them.