中华猕猴桃在中国种植适宜性区划

中华猕猴桃(Actinidia chinensis)原产于中国,是我国主栽猕猴桃品种之一,由于其较高的经济价值,近年来种植规模呈逐步扩大趋势。本文利用MaxEnt模型,基于气候因子和物种分布记录,分析中华猕猴桃在中国的种植适宜性区划,采用刀切法(Jackknife test)筛选主导气候因子及其适宜值。基于筛选的气候因子10次重复的AUC平均值为0.960,表明MaxEnt模拟中华猕猴桃在中国潜在分布的准确性极好,其在中国的适生区为25°N~36°N, 101°E~122°E,高适生区包括四川、陕西、重庆、湖北、贵州、浙江、湖南、安徽、河南、江苏和甘肃等省份;中适生区则以高适生区为中心向外扩散,包括河南、湖北、安徽、江苏和山东等地。限制中华猕猴桃地理分布的关键气候因子为最冷季度平均温度、4月最高温度、10月最低温度、5月份平均温度、5月份平均雨量、平均日较差等。研究结果可为中华猕猴桃种植区划提供理论参考。

Climatic suitability regionalization of Actinidia chinensis in China

Actinidia chinensis, originating in China, is a main cultivar in China, whose planting scale has been gradually rising in recent years. In this study, based on climatic factors and distribution records, MaxEnt(the maximum entropy model) was used to simulate the potential distribution of Actinidia chinensis in China and analyze the suitable bioclimatic characteristics of Actinidia chinensis. Response curves which indicated the relationships between climatic factors and the predicted probability of presence of Actinidia chinensis were drew up by MaxEnt, and correlation analysis was used to decrease the number of factors for the final distribution model, dominant factors were chosen in this paper by Jackknife test, while receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was used to evaluate the simulation. The results showed that, the AUC of high values referred to good results that significantly differed from random predictions. The accuracy of prediction of Actinidia chinensis in the current period was found to be “excellent” (AUC_mean=0.960) according to the evaluation criterion. The predicted result of MaxEnt modeling was imported into ArcGIS10.0 for further analysis and it showed that, under the present climatic conditions, the potential suitable regions for Actinidia chinensis were mainly distributed from 25°N to 36°N in latitude, and from 101°E to 122°E in longitude. The highly suitable areas were in Sichuan, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Hubei, Guizhou, Zhejiang, Hunan, Anhui, Henan, Jiangsu and Gansu provinces, whereas the moderately suitable areas were in Henan, Hubei, Anhui and Shandong provinces. The important climatic factors affecting the distribution of Actinidia chinensis were mean temperature of driest quarter (bio11), maximum temperature in April (tmax4), minimum temperature in October (tmin10), mean temperature in May (tmean5), precipitation in May (pre5) and mean diurnal range (bio2). So the results may provide reference for Actinidia chinensis planting pattern and countermeasures to cope with climate change impact in China.