Risk analysis as the basis for evaluating the consequences of climate changes in agriculture

A method is proposed for evaluating the consequences of climate changes in agriculture based on comparing the risk of major crop failures under current and anticipated climatic conditions. It is shown that risk is very sensitive to climate changes and can increase substantially against the background of relatively small decreases in the long-term average (normal) yield. The possibility of compensating the negative effect of an increase of risk by reducing the annual variability of crop yield is discussed. Calculation formulas are given.