基于VAR模型下粮食价格、农业生产成本与农民收入的实证研究

通过脉冲响应函数得出农业生产资料价格与粮食价格,同时上涨,部分或者完全抵消了粮食价格上涨以及国家试图提高农民收入、调节收入分配而出台的各项优惠政策对农民收入的增加效应。Granger因果检验说明粮食价格、农民收入分别是农业生产成本的Granger原因。为此,政府必须将农业生产资料价格的上涨幅度控制在合理区间,改善农村物流现状,规范农资市场的经营等。

The Empirical Research on the Food Prices, the Cost of Agricultural Production and the Income of Farmers based on VAR Model

Calculated after the impulse response functions, it is found that when the prices of the agricultural production rise along with the food prices, partially or completely offset the increase of farmer''s income caused by the preferential policies. Granger causality test shows that grain prices, farmers '' income are Granger cause. Therefore, agricultural means of production prices rise must be controlled within a reasonable range. And suggestions about strengthening construction of circulation system of agricultural production have been proposed.