重庆市农村土地流转的农户供求意愿研究

以土地流转中的农户供求意愿为切入点,构建农户流转决策的理论模型,解释理论上的重庆土地流转与流转收益和成本间的关系,进而厘定各因素影响农户流转意愿的计量模型,科学把握重庆农户流转意愿与实际差距的内在原因。具体为：①以土地流转中农户的供求意愿为切入点,遵循理论决策-实证绩效-行为机理-区域调控的框架,分析重庆农村土地流转过程中农户的供求意愿及行为作用机理,构建破解影响重庆农村土地流转的区域对策框架,结论可服务于重庆目前及今后的城乡统筹用地的战略需求。②借助参与性农村评估获得的翔实资料,结合多学科耦合,构建适于重庆的农户土地流转供求意愿决策的理论和计量模型,分析土地流转的供求关系和流转效率,与以往研究相比,实现了理论决策分析与计量经济模拟间的统一,避免了单一视角的无针对性的定性分析弱点。但针对这一研究,需要破解2个关键问题：①众多复杂的影响因素使得土地流转的农户供求意愿分析,需借助多分类无序逻辑回归而进行,但怎样识别影响农户土地流转供求意愿的潜在因素,属理论决策方面首先必须破解的难题。②如何厘定农户决策行为及作用机理模型,以分析土地流转中农户的供求意愿绩效,进而为重庆农村土地流转的区域性调控与制度创新提供依据,属实证绩效方面所必须破解的难题。

The Will of Farmers' Supply and Demand for Rural Land Transfer in Chongqing

With the will of farmers' supply and demand of land transfer as the starting point,the central contents included into explaining theoretically the relationship between benefits and costs of land transfer in Chongqing,based on the theoretical model of household decision-making of land transfer; and understanding scientifically the underlying causes of the gap between the actual transferring area and the will of farmers' land transfer,through the measurement model integrating various factors affecting the will of farmers' land transfer. Specifically,the future research mainly focused on:① following the framework of theoretic decision-making-positive performance-behavior mechanism-regional regulation,analyzing the will of farmers' supply and demand of land transfer and the function mechanism of their behaviors,constructing the regional countermeasure framework cracking the effect factors of land transfer,and thus the above consequences serving current and future strategic needs for harmonious development in urban and rural areas in Chongqing; and ② integrating multi-disciplinary knowledge,building suitable theory and econometric model for the will of supply and demand of land transfer decision-making in Chongqing,to analyze the relations of supply and demand and the efficiency of land transfer,comparing with the previous studies,achieving the unity between theoretical decision-making analysis and econometric simulation,and avoiding the non-specific vulnerability of qualitative analysis based on a single view. Therefore,two key issues need to be resolved:① the will of farmers' supply and demand needs to rely on multi-category disorder logistic regression to finish,due to many complex factors affecting land transfer. But,how to identify the underlying factors affecting the will of farmers' supply and demand for land transfer was the first crack problem of theoretic decision-making; and ② How to build the model of farmers' behavior decision-making and their function mechanism,to analyze the performance of the will of farmers' supply and demand of land transfer,further providing scientific knowledge for regional control and institutional innovation of land transfer,was must be solved to empirical performance problems.