| 基于灰色马尔可夫模型的农业用水量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋巧娜,唐德善. 基于灰色马尔可夫模型的农业用水量预测[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2007, 35(6): 1788-1789. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2007.06.104 |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋巧娜 唐德善 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学商学院,江苏南京,210098;2. 河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京,210098 |
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| 摘 要： | 将灰色GM(1,1)模型和马尔可夫模型结合,构建灰色马尔可夫预测模型.按特定的状态划分方法,先用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测,再用马尔可夫模型对预测结果进行优化,使预测精度大大提高.最后以辽河流域某典型区为例,预测结果证明了该模型的优势.
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| 关 键 词： | 农业用水量 预测模型 灰色GM(1,1)模型 马尔可夫模型 |
| 文章编号： | 0517-6611（2007）06-01788-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-11-17 |
Forecast of the Water Consumption in Agriculture Based on Grey Markov Model |
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| SONG Qiao-na et al. Forecast of the Water Consumption in Agriculture Based on Grey Markov Model[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2007, 35(6): 1788-1789. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2007.06.104 |
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| Authors: | SONG Qiao-na et al |
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| Affiliation: | Business College of Hehai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210098 |
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| Abstract: | GM(1,1) is a forecasting model in water consumption in agriculture.This model is not suitable for the forecast of the quantity with randomness and great changed data.But,Markov model is advantaged to treat with problems with these characteristics.Two models were combined together to form a new model-grey Markov model in this paper.According to ways of the special state,grey GM(1,1) model was firstly used to optimize the data,then,Markov model was used to optimize the results from the grey GM(1,1) model again.The grey Markov model made the optimum result much more precise.Finally,a certain representative area in Liao River as example given proved the advantage. |
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| Keywords: | Water consumption in agriculture Prediction model Grey GM(1 1) model Markov model |
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