产品设计方案的风险性研究

分析了目前在产品设计方案的风险性研究中存在的不足，并结合现代质量观点，提出以设计方案不能满足需求的概率为指标进行风险性分析的方法，该方法将方案的风险性分解为各质量属性的风险性分别进行处理，然后通过聚合理论加以综合，从而得到方案的风险性，同时，该方法还充分考虑到分析中的不确定性，提出了不确定性聚合公式，引用了粗集理论等主、客观处理方法。最后，以齿轮箱设计方案的风险性分析为例进行应用研究。

Study on the Risk of Product Design Project

This paper analyzed the demerits existing in research of a product design project, and adopting the philosophy of modern quality set forth the risk analytical method in which the probability that project couldn't satisfy the requirement of product design was taken as an index. By this method, the risks of qualitative and quantitative quality attributes were analyzed respectively. The risk formulas of quantitative quality attributes were put forward. As the each qualitative quality attribute has its own characteristics, the risk should be individually analyzed. After all the risks of quality attributes have been confirmed, they should be aggregate to get the risk of project. Considering the uncertainty in analysis, the means of rough set theory and evidential reasoning were used to get the risk of quality attribute. The uncertainty aggregation formulas of project were set forth. At last, the application of the method was studied through the project analysis of a gear case.