Effects of accelerated tariff liberalization on the forest products sector: a global modeling approach

The objective of this study was to project the effects on the world forest sector of eliminating quickly all import tariffs. The projections were done for two scenarios: (1) progressive tariff reduction according to the current schedule of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade; (2) complete elimination of all tariffs within the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries. The projections were obtained with the global forest products model (GFPM), for the years 1998–2010. The model gave market equilibrium projections of quantities produced, consumed, imported and exported for each of 180 countries, and for 14 commodity groups, covering roundwood, sawnwood, wood-based panels, pulp and recycled fibers and paper and paperboard. The model also projected world equilibrium prices. The results showed that, with or without ATL agreement, the world consumption and trade of all forest products would continue to grow along the historical trends, and the world prices of forest products would increase moderately. With the elimination of tariffs in APEC countries, the projected world production and consumption of all products would change little (less than 0.5%). The tariff reduction effects would be larger for trade, and the commodity composition of world trade would shift from raw materials to more processed products. The timber harvest would change in a number of countries, but the net effect at the world scale would be small. While the US consumption and production of forest products would change little, the US would reduce its export of logs and increase exports of most processed products. The US timber harvest was expected to be indistinguishable compared to what it would be in the absence of the Accelerated Tariff Liberalization agreement.