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A model (BSurvE) for evaluating national surveillance programs for bovine spongiform encephalopathy |
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| Authors: | Prattley D J Morris R S Cannon R M Wilesmith J W Stevenson M A |
| Affiliation: | aEpiCentre, Institute of Veterinary, Animal, and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Private Bag 11-222, Palmerston North, New Zealand bAnimal Health and Welfare Directorate General, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, 1A Page Street, London SW1P 4PQ, UK |
| Abstract: | Our BSurvE spreadsheet model estimates the BSE prevalence in a national cattle population, and can be used to evaluate and compare alternative strategies for a national surveillance program. Each individual surveillance test has a point value (based on demographic and epidemiological information) that reflects the likelihood of detecting BSE in an animal of a given age leaving the population via the stated surveillance stream. A target sum point value for the country is calculated according to a user-defined design prevalence and confidence level, the number of cases detected in animals born after the selected starting date and the national adult-herd size. Surveillance tests carried out on different sub-populations of animals are ranked according to the number of points gained per unit cost, and the results can be used in designing alternative surveillance programs. |
| Keywords: | BSE Bovine spongiform encephalopathy Cattle Epidemiology Point system Prevalence estimation Resource allocation Surveillance |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect PubMed 等数据库收录！ | |