管道风险因素的主客观集成权重赋权方法

为了优化油气管道风险因素权重分配,提高管道风险评价结果的准确性,迫切需要一种适用于油气管道风险因素的赋权方法。通过对国内外油气管道事故进行统计,明确了油气管道的6类风险因素;建立了基于灰色关联理论与熵权理论相结合的权重赋值模型,确定油气管道风险因素的主观权重和客观权重,并基于偏差最小化理论建立了动态的风险因素集成权重模型。以某输油管道为例,选取4个有代表性的时间节点,求解6类管道风险因素的主观权重、客观权重及集成权重。结果表明:基于主客观集成权重的管道风险因素赋权方法能够有效计算各风险因素的权重,可应用于各类油气管道的风险评价中。

Pipeline risk factor weighting method based on subjective-objective integrated weight

In order to optimize the weight distribution of risk factors of oil and gas pipeline and improve the accuracy of pipeline risk assessment results, it is in urgent need to develop a weighting method suitable for the risk factors of oil and gas pipelines. In this paper, six kinds of pipeline risk factors were identified by conducting statistical analysis on oil and gas pipeline accidents at home and abroad. Then, the weighting model based on grey correlation theory and entropy weight theory was established to determine the subjective and objective weights of the risk factors of oil and gas pipelines. And the dynamic integrated weight model for risk factors was established based on the deviation minimization theory. Finally, a case study was conducted on one certain pipeline and its four representative time nodes were selected to calculate the subjective weight, objective weight and integrated weight of six pipeline risk factors. It is indicated that the pipeline risk factor weighting method based on subjective-objective integrated weight can effectively calculate the weights of risk factors and is applicable to the risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines.