考虑失效相关性的管道腐蚀故障树新算法

为了预测管道腐蚀失效的发生及合理控制管道腐蚀,对油气管道腐蚀危害因素进行分析,建立其失效故障树。考虑到基本事件失效概率的准确性对故障树计算重要性的影响,引入D-S证据理论和Atanassov直觉模糊基本理论,对基本事件模糊概率计算方法进行改进。为提高故障树最小割集及顶事件失效概率的计算精度,建立基于修正的哈马邱尔积算子的最小割集基本事件并联系统失效概率分析模型,提出利用考虑基本事件的属性和分类的排序组合方法,求解多基本事件组合失效概率。研究结果表明:该方法可大幅提高顶事件失效概率的计算精度,为油气管道腐蚀的有效防护提供理论依据。

A new algorithm for fault tree of pipeline corrosion based on failure correlation

In order to predict the occurrence of pipeline corrosion failure and control the pipeline corrosion reasonably, the hazard factors of oil and gas pipeline corrosion were analyzed and its fault tree was established. Considering the effect of the accuracy of basic event failure probability to the significance of fault tree calculation, the D-S evidence theory and the basic Atanassov intuitionistic fuzzy theory were introduced to improve the fuzzy probability calculation method used for basic event. In order to increase the calculation precision of failure probability of top event and minimum cut sets of fault tree, the failure probability analysis model was established for the parallel system of minimum cut sets’ basic events based on the modified Hamacher operator. A sequencing/combining method considering attributes and classification of basic event was put forward to calculate the failure probability of multi-basic event combination. It is indicated that this method can greatly improve the calculation accuracy of failure probability of top event. The research results provide theoretical basis for the effective prevention of oil and gas pipeline corrosion.