基于模糊积分评估模型的林火灾害风险管理研究

重视和加强林火风险灾害管理研究,是预防、减少和控制森林火灾的重要手段和措施.该文阐明了林火灾害风险及风险管理的概念和含义,明确了风险判识、风险分析、风险评估和风险控制,特别是风险分析与评估的内容、指标(因子)与方法.参考城市消防风险评估方法,建立林火灾害风险评估指标体系,并运用模糊层次分析法(Fuzzy-AHP)对其权重进行处理,在模糊测度的基础上,构建基于模糊积分的林火灾害风险评估模型,为做好林火灾害风险管理,尤其是风险分析与评估提供新的措施和方法.

Risk management of forest fire based on assessment model built with fuzzy integration model.

The risk management of forest fires is one of the important measures and methods for fire fighters to prevent,reduce and control the casualties.The concept of the risk of forest fire and its management are introduced and discussed in this paper.The content,indexes and methods for the judgement and analyses of the risk,the assessment of the risk and the risk control are discussed and made clearer.More emphases are put on the analysis and assessment of the risk.Using the assessment method of the urban fire fighting as a reference tool,the assessment index system of risk of forest fire is set up,and a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process for its weights is established.The new corresponding methods and measures are provided for dealing with the forest fire risk management,especially for risk analysis and assessment.