Predicting abundance and productivity of blueberry plants under insect defoliation in Alaska

Unprecedented outbreaks of defoliating insects severely damaged blueberry crops near Port Graham on the Kenai Peninsula in Alaska from 2008-2012. The Native people in this region rely heavily on gathered blueberries and other foods for sustenance and nourishment. Influences of topography and stand structure on blueberry abundance and fruiting were examined and used to develop spatial models to predict abundance and productivity of blueberry plants. Fruiting was associated with decreased canopy density, a low basal area and southwesterly aspects. Stands with relatively high site indices have greater abundance of blueberry plants, while the opposite trend was observed with productivity. Results demonstrate the feasibility of modeling the abundance and productivity of blueberry plants using easily obtained satellite imagery in conjunction with a well-organized field data collection system.