吉林省气候变化对玉米气象产量的影响

利用吉林省梨树县1986～2008年的气象资料和玉米产量资料，在确定梨树县玉米的气象产量与积温、降雨以及日照时数之间关系的基础上，分析吉林省气候变化规律及其对玉米产量的影响。结果表明：玉米的气象产量(Y_w)与降雨量(x₁)呈显著正相关，与生育期内的积温(x₂)呈显著负相关，与日照时数无显著相关关系，与生育期内的降雨量和积温存在显著的二元线性关系：Y_w=15768.77+2.87x₁-5.42x₂，(r=0.63)。吉林省整个生育期内的平均气温、积温分别以每年0.05℃和10℃左右增加，降雨量以每年5mm左右减少，日照时数没有明显变化。随着吉林省气候变暖和降雨减少现象的加剧，对吉林省的旱情和玉米产量的影响越来越重。

Influence of Climate Change on Meteorological Yield of Maize in Jilin Province

The data of meteorological and maize production of Lishu county in Jilin province during 1986 - 2008 were used, in order to analyze regulation of climate change and its influence on maize meteorological yield, it was on the base of the relationship between meteorological yield of maize and accumulated temperature, rainfall and sunshine hours.The result showed meteorological yield of maize (Y_w) had a significant positive correlation with rainfall (x_1, a negative correlation with accumulated temperature, had no correlation with sunshine hours.Meteorological yield of maize had a significant quadratic linear regression correlation with rainfall and accumulated temperature during growth stage: Y_w= 15 768.77+2.87x_1-5.42x_2, r=0.63.The average temperature and accumulated temperature were in-creased 0.05 ℃ and 10 ℃ in Jilin Province throughout the growth period annually, rainfall was decreased around 5mm per year, sunshine hours had no change significantly.With the intensify of the phenomena of climate warming and rainfall reduction in Jilin Province, the impact on drought and maize yield will become heavy.