From spawning grounds to the estuary: using linked individual-based and hydrodynamic models to interpret patterns and processes in the oceanic phase of Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus life history

Present theory suggests that population regulation in marine fishes cannot be resolved until an understanding of the processes involved in shaping the overall distribution (the number of populations, geographical extent, mean abundance and temporal changes in abundance) is developed. Here, we present a step toward understanding Atlantic menhaden population patterns, by studying processes in the Middle and South Atlantic Bights, which shape those patterns. We use individual-based and hydrodynamic models to reinterpret the 'mechanics' of the menhaden life history, and put forward several potentially testable hypotheses. The success of the menhaden reproductive strategy seems to depend on the seasonal changes in the mean flow field of the Middle and South Atlantic Bights, suggesting that their life history may have been strongly structured by the regional physics of the system. Because the annual menhaden migration is size-based and spawning occurs throughout the population's range, the size distribution of the adult population may influence the supply of larvae to particular estuaries along the coast. Recruitment of larvae into Delaware and Chesapeake Bays may be dependent on spawning to the north of the bays' mouths, owing to coastline shape and orientation in the vicinity of the bays. Our results suggest that management of this resource might be improved by consideration of the spatial and temporal variability in both the biological and the physical system.