沈阳地区亚洲玉米螟及赤眼蜂发生量预测模型研究

2000～2013年田间系统监测沈阳地区亚洲玉米螟和赤眼蜂的发生规律.亚洲玉米螟落卵量、卵孵化量、赤眼蜂寄生量等资料和温度、积温、湿度、雨量、光照等气象资料作为预测因子,采用简单逐步回归、二次多项式逐步回归及多因子互作回归进行拟合,建立不同发生量预测预报模型,并对其进行检验.结果表明,亚洲玉米螟及赤眼蜂发生量与多因子之间存在相关关系,采用预报模型可较为准确地预测出发生量,一代亚洲玉米螟落卵量采用简单逐步回归组建的模型结果可靠;二代亚洲玉米螟卵孵化量与赤眼蜂寄生量采用简单逐步回归和多因子交互组建的模型结果均可靠,玉米螟落卵量采用二次多项式逐步回归模型结果可靠.

Occurrence Quantity Forecast Model Research of Maize Borer and Trichogramma in Shenyang District

The field occurrence regularity of the maize borer and Trichogramma in Shenyang district had been systemically monitored in 2010-2013. Adopted information of the maize borer spawning quantity, the amount of the parasitic spawn by the Trichogramma and the meteorological data, such as temperature, accumulated temperature,humidity, rainfall and illumination as predictive factors, established prediction models of different occurrence quantity by using simple step wise regression, quadratic polynomial regression and multiple factors interactions step wise regression, and carried on the inspection. The results showed that there was a relevant relationship between occurrence quantity and the multiple factors, the prediction model could be used to predict the occurrence quantity of the maize borer and Trichogramma. The simple step wise regression model was reliable to predict the spawning quantity of the first generation, and it was both reliable to predict the incubation and parasitic quantity of the second generation using simple step wise regression and multiple factors interactions step wise regression model, while the quadratic polynomial regression was the only reliable to predict the spawning quantity of the second generation.