黑龙江省大豆主产地产量动态预报系统的建立

利用黑龙江省大豆主产区农业气象试验站产量资料和发育期资料,日最高气温、最低气温、日降水量和日照时数等资料,根据历史相邻两年关键气象因子变化引起大豆产量的丰欠指数,建立动态产量预报模型,并在已建立预报模型的基础上,以Visual Basic 6.0为计算机语言开发黑龙江省大豆产量动态预报系统。结果表明:经2011-2013年大豆产量动态预报检验,5个代表站81%的大豆预报结果丰欠趋势与实际趋势表现一致,单产预报准确率总体较好,越接近大豆成熟,预报准确率越高;经2016年业务运行,预报系统可以方便、快捷地实现对黑龙江省主产区大豆产量的动态预报。

System Development of Dynamic Forecast on Soybean Yield of Main Areas in Heilongjiang Province

Soybean is one of the most important oil crops in China and Heilongjiang province is the main production base of soybean in China.It is significant to study soybean yield prediction method for the national economy and the people's livelihood in this region.Based on bumper or poor harvest of soybean due to meteorological element variation between two adjoined years in history,a dynamic prediction model was established for region-specific soybean yield,by using the data of yield of agro-meteorological experimental station in major soybean producing areas in development stage,daily maximum and minimum temperature,daily precipitation and daily sunshine duration.On base of these models,dynamic forecast system of soybean yield was established with computer language of VB 6.0.The result showed that mean accuracy was high for forecast trend and forecast yield of these soybean models by verifying yield from 2011 to 2013,true real trend was consistent with 81％ soybean forecast trend of five stations,and the forecast accuracy of yield was better in general.The forecast accuracy was higher when soybean was gradually ripe.The forecast system could expediently and quickly forecast soybean yield of main areas in Heilongjiang province with the operation of 2016.