稻飞虱迁飞气象条件等级预报研究

利用广西桂林地区近5年水稻稻飞虱发生资料与气象资料进行对比分析,选择影响桂林地区稻飞虱迁入的气象因子（温度、降水、风向、风速、湿度）,考虑前期气象条件和虫源数,采用回归分析方法,建立水稻稻飞虱迁飞与影响的气象条件等级预报业务系统。系统将各因子和预报对象都划分为5级,用当地气象台发布的未来一周天气预报结论,综合分析前期气象条件和虫源数是否有利,对未来1～7天逐日影响稻飞虱迁飞的气象条件等级进行预报。预报业务系统实用性强,逐日预报准确率达70%以上,在生产实践中发挥了积极的作用。

Study on the Meteorological Conditions Grade Forecast for the Migration of Rice Planthopper

By comparative analysis on the meteorological conditions and occurrences of rice planthoppers in Guilin of Guangxi during 2005~2009,the temperature,precipitation,wind direction,wind velocity,humidity were chosen as the factors that affected the migration of rice planthopper in Guilin.Thinking of meteorological conditions and injurious number in early period,regression analysis method was used to establish the work system for grade forecast of meteorological conditions that affected the migration of rice planthopper.The forecast factors and targets were divided as 5 grades in the work system.Using one-week's weather forecast conclusion that local observatory had published,whether the meteorological conditions and injurious number were favorable or not was analyzed synthetically.The meteorological conditions grades that affected the migration of rice planthopper for each day in future 1-7 days were predicted.This is a practical forecast work system and the forecast accuracy for each day is larger than 70%.The work system has positive function in the manufacture practice.