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| 基于BP神经网络的台风降雨量预测研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 封毅,武博强,崔灵周.基于BP神经网络的台风降雨量预测研究[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(3):289-293. |
| 作者姓名： | 封毅 武博强 崔灵周 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 温州大学学报编辑部,浙江温州,325035 2. 长安大学地质工程学院,西安,710054 3. 温州大学生命与环境科学学院,浙江温州,325035 |
| 基金项目： | 温州市科技局重大项目“温州台风暴雨预测预报及灾情模型研究”(S20080017);浙江省教育厅项目“地貌形态多重分形特征与区域滑坡灾害空间分布关系研究”(20070527) |
| 摘 要： | 台风登陆所带来的强降雨可引发严重的灾害。依据BP神经网络基本原理,结合台风及降雨特征,建立了台风降雨量BP神经网络预测模型,利用200509号台风"麦莎"期间温州地区88个雨量观测站的连续6h雨量和台风特征参数,对该模型进行了训练和检验。模型检验表明,6h降雨量预测相对误差小于30%的数据组所占比例达到71.1%。为台风期间降雨量时空分布快速预测提供了有益的尝试,对于沿海地区台风灾害预警、损失评估和应急决策具有重要现实意义。 |
| 关 键 词： | BP神经网络 台风 降水量 预测 |
Study on Forecasting Typhoon Rainfall Based on BP Neural Network |
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| FENG Yi,WU Bo-qiang,CUI Ling-zhou.Study on Forecasting Typhoon Rainfall Based on BP Neural Network[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2012,19(3):289-293. | |
| Authors: | FENG Yi WU Bo-qiang CUI Ling-zhou |
| Institution: | 1.Editorial Department of Journal,Wenzhou University,Wenzhou,Zhejiang 325035,China;2.College of Life and Environmental Science,Wenzhou University,Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035,China;3.Colloge of Geological Engineering,Chang′an University,Xi′an 710054,China) |
| Abstract: | The heveay rainfall resulting from typhoon often caused severe disasters.Based on the principle of BP neural network and rainfall character of typhoon,the model of forecasting typhoon rainfall was set up.By using the rainfall of 6 hours from 88 rainfall observation stations during typhoon Matsa(No:200509) and parameter of typhoon character,the model was trained and validated.The results showed that the proportion of relative error lower than 30% of per 6 hours rainfall was 71.1%.The study tried rapid prediction of the temporal variation and spatial distribution of typhoon rainfall,which was more important for typhoon disaster forecast,the damage assessment and decision-making. |
| Keywords: | BP neural network typhoon rainfall forecasting |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |