西安市土地承载力定量评价与动态分析

以2009年为例,修正了Wackernagel提出的耕地产量因子,并利用生态足迹的理论和方法,对西安市1997—2009年的生态足迹、生态承载力、生态赤字/盈余进行了测算,建立了生态压力指数模型以及生态足迹、生态承载力、生态盈余和生态压力指数预测模型。结果表明:(1)1997—2009年西安市生态足迹呈增加趋势,人均增加幅度为0.509 7 hm2;(2)生态承载力呈降低趋势,人均降低幅度为0.152 0 hm2;(3)生态压力指数上升幅度很大,由1.45上升到3.88,上升幅度为2.43;(4)西安市出现严重的生态赤字现象,还有继续增加的趋势。西安市生态环境处于不安全状态,可持续发展受到严重的影响。

Quantitative Assessment and Dynamic Analysis of Land Carrying Capacity in Xi'an City

The cultivated land production factor originally developed by Wackernagel was revised based on the data from the year of 2009.Using the principles and models of ecological footprints,this study proposed a ecological pressure index model and prediction models to calculate the ecological footprint,ecological carrying capacity,and ecological surplus/loss of Xi′an City from 1997 to 2009.The results indicate that from 1997 to 2009,the ecological footprint increased 0.509 7 hm2 per person,the ecological carrying capacity 0.152 0 hm2 per person,and the ecological pressure index had changed from 1.45 to 3.88,indicating Xi′an City had been overloaded heavily and increasingly.In brief,the environment of Xi′an City is ecologically unsafe and its sustainable development could be at risk.