贵阳市耕地面积变化的驱动力研究

根据贵阳市1996—2009年的统计资料,选取总人口、国内生产总值、农业机械化水平、城镇化率等12个社会经济因子,运用SPSS数据处理软件进行相关分析和主成分分析,对近14a来贵阳市耕地面积变化趋势以及变化因子进行了综合分析研究,并揭示了引起耕地数量变化的驱动机制。结果表明,近14a来贵阳市耕地面积总体呈下降趋势,人均耕地面积变化态势与总耕地数量变化保持一致。通过主成分分析得出导致贵阳市耕地面积变化的驱动因素为人口的增长,经济的发展和农业科技水平的进步。在此基础上提出了保护耕地的措施,以确保该市耕地资源得到安全和可持续利用。

Driving Forces for Change of Arable Land Quantity in Guiyang City

12 social factors,including population,GDP,agricultural mechanization level and urbanization rate,were selected based on statistic data from 1996 to 2009 in Guiyang City.The change trend of arable land area in the past 14 years and its factors were studied by using correlation analysis and principal component analysis with the aid of SPSS.Results showed that the general trend of arable land area presented a reduction in the study period,and the change of per capita arable land was consistent with that of total arable land quantity.By principal component analysis,the driving factors for the change of arable land area in Guiyang City were found to be the economic development,population increasement and advanced agricultural technology.Finally,the measures for arable land protection were proposed to make the arable land resources used safely and sustainably.