基于压力-状态-响应模型的宝鸡市生态安全动态评价及预测

基于压力—状态—响应(PSR)概念模型,对21个指标进行了数据标准化处理,指标权重确定和生态安全评价模型的构建。以陕西省宝鸡市为例,分析了宝鸡市1991—2009年来的生态安全问题。利用生态安全动态度模型对研究区的生态安全变化状况进行深入研究,并利用灰色系统理论中的灰色系统预测模型GM(1,1),对研究区未来10a的生态安全状况进行预测。研究结果:(1)19a间宝鸡市的生态安全值呈现逐年减小的趋势,从1991年的0.650减小为2009年的0.434,平均每年减少0.01749%。(2)以现在的生态环境的"压力—状态—响应"指数预测未来10a的生态安全值的变化情况,结果显示从2012—2021年生态安全值将持续减小,2021年生态安全值将减小至0.317。

Ecological Security Evaluation and Its Forecast Analysis of Baoji City Using Pressure-State-Response Model

Pressure—state—response(P—S—R) model was used to perform the standardization of 21 indexes,to determine index weights and to construct an ecological security evaluation model.By taking Baoji City as an example,ecological safety problems in Baoji City from 1991 to 2009 were analyzed.Change of ecological security in the area was studied in detail by using dynamic ecological security model.Finally,grey system budget model GM(1,1) based on the grey system theory was used to forecast ecological security in the next decade.Results showed that(1) ecological security value for the city in the past 19 years was reduced year by year,specifically,the value was reduced from 0.650 in 1991 to 0.434 in 2009,with an average reduction by 0.01749%;(2) the pressure—state—response model was used to forecast ecological security situation in the next decade.From 2012 to 2021,ecological security value will maintain the reducing trend and be reduced to 0.317 by 2021.