水环境承载力与经济效率的多元回归模型及应用

定量分析经济效率与水环境承载力的关系能够提高水资源的有效利用和控制水环境的污染。根据环境库兹涅茨曲线假说和我国环境质量的现状,本文建立了评价经济效率和水环境承载力的指标体系;运用加权最小二乘回归方法,后向筛选策略,SPSS软件,以及国家统计局2004年发布的有关统计数据,得出被解释变量y即人均GDP,和解释变量WATUSI、INDWWAT、INDWWS、LIFWWAT之间的量化关系。通过对西部地区的数据分析,可知控制和减少工业废水的排放量和增加达标工业废水排放量,是改善水环境质量,提高人均GDP值的重点。验证了加权最小二乘回归模型的可靠性和合理性,它们之间的定量关系可以较好的解释和定量分析经济效率与水环境承载力的相互作用。

A Multiple Regression Model of Water Environment Carrying Capacity and Economic Efficiency and Its Application

Analyzing relation between economic efficiency and the water environment carrying capacity quantitatively is able to enhance efficiency of water resource use and to control water environment pollution. According to the hy-pothesis of the environment Krueger curve and the environment quality present situation, this research established the assessment index system related to economic efficiency and the water environment carrying capacity. After using the weighted least squares regression, the backward variables removed, the SPSS software, and the related statistical data in 2004 issued by the state statistical bureau, the quantification relation between dependenty namely GDP percapita, and independent WATUSI, INDWWAT, INDWWS, LIFWWAT was obtained. Through analyzing the data of the western area, it can be known that to control and reduce the discharged industrial waste water and to increase the discharged standard water after dealing with industrial waste water is a key point for improving the water environment quality and enhancing the GDP per capita. The effectiveness and rationality about the weighted least squares regression model is confirmed. The mutual function between them can be analyzed by the quantitative relation.