基于产出缺口的菲利普斯曲线对我国通胀预测的研究

基于菲利普斯曲线理论中产出缺口与通货膨胀率的关系,应用卡尔曼滤波方法估算我国的潜在产出与产出缺口,通过格兰杰因果关系验证产出缺口与通货膨胀的因果关系,并建立产出缺口的菲利普斯曲线模型进行通货膨胀预测。实证结果表明该模型能够较好地预测我国通货膨胀,从而能为制定相应的货币政策提供良好的参考。

On China Inflation Rate Forecasts by the Phillips Curve Model

Based on the Phillips curve theory of the relationship between output gap and inflation rate, the potential output and output gap has been estimated by Kalman filtering methods. After verified the causality relationship between output gap and inflation rate by Granger causality test, the Philips curve of output gap has been designed to forecast inflation rate. Empirical analysis shows that the curve works and it maybe can give some ideas to our monetary policy making.