基于VaR和集中度约束的贷款组合优化模型

以1994~2009年数据资料为基础构建VAR模型，运用协整检验分析方法、脉冲响应分析方法和方差分解分析方法对流转税和所得税影响产业结构的效应进行了研究。研究发现：从长期来说，流转税对产业结构调整的影响比较显著，而所得税相对弱些；从短期来看，所得税对产业结构调整的影响比较显著，而流转税相对较弱，但二者对产业结构调整的影响都具有滞后效应。因此，分时期区别利用流转税和所得税政策影响产业结构是必要的。

Loan Portfolios Optimization Model Based on VaR and Concentration Constraint

VAR model constructed by data from 1994 to 2009, the effect of turnover tax and income tax on the industrial structure adjustment has been studied by co-integration analysis, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis. The results show, the effect from turnover tax is bigger than which from income tax in the long term, while the effect from income tax is bigger in the short term. However, both the impact has lag effect. Therefore, it is necessary to use the different tax in different period.