Variability,Uncertainty, and Sensitivity of Phosphorus Deposition Load Estimates in South Florida

Atmospheric deposition, a substantial source of phosphorus (P) to the Florida Everglades, has been measured on a weekly basis in South Florida since 1974, but P measurements are highly variable due to random noise in the data. This study applies statistical approaches that calculatethe variability and uncertainty of the P load estimation model based on wet and dry P concentrations and rainfall volume.The average mean and standard deviation of the estimated P deposition rates for 13 sites in South Florida are 41±33 mg P m^-2 yr^-1. First order analysis of the random and measurement errors in the input variables produces a propagation error estimate in P load calculation. The atmospheric P deposition load shows high spatial and temporal variability with no consistent long-term trends. Because of the random noisy nature of P deposition, estimated P deposition loads have a significant amount of uncertainty no matter what type of collection instrument is used. Thus, duplicate sampling is highly recommended to increase the amount of uncontaminated data.