基于GIS的具有干扰作用的土地利用系统动态优化模型

GIS是大尺度土地利用规划的基本工具，景观格局的动态变化是景观生态学的重要方面，利用Markov链模型，人们研究了各土地利用类型随时间的转移，用于土地利用系统的规划和管理，然而，目前用来描述空间格局的动态变化的转移矩阵模型其元素是常数，人类和自然的干扰未加考虑，使得这些模型的应用效果到影响。本文基于GIS，并考虑人类和自然的干扰，提出土地利用系统动态规划的多维景观格局动态优化决策模型s(t 1)=s(t)Q(t) w^t(t)r(t)]其中向量s(t)是土地利用面积的分布。初步研制了土地利用规划和管理的计算机决策支持系统。对于给定的目标，可以产生一系列决策变量。使土地利用系统作为一个整体可趋势其最优结构，给出了模型的算法，并证明其收敛性。与GIS连接，用该模型可对土地利用系统的空间格局进行定量动态模拟。作为个例研究，该模型被用于杭州城市土地利用规划，结果表明：模型模拟效果良好。

A GIS-based Dynamic Optimzing Model in LandUse System With Disturbance

GIS is an essential tool for large scale land use planning.The spatio temporal dynamic changes of landscape patterns are an important issue for researches in landscape ecology.The transitions among various land use types over time, using the Markov chain model and combined with economic factors,were conducted for the management and planning of land use system.These models,however,only depend on the transition matrix,whose elements were constant, to describe the dynamic change of spatial patterns. In addition, the anthropogenic and natural disturbances were not considered in these models, which made them somehow ineffective in their applications. This paper, based on GIS and taken account of anthropogenic and natural disturbances, proposes a multi dimension landscape patterns dynamic optimizing decision models(t+1)=s(t)Q(t)+w t(t)r(t)]for the dynamic programming of land use system, where the vector s(t) is the distribution of areas of land use, and develops a preliminary computer decision support system for land use planning and management. Aimed at certain given objectives, a series of decision variables were generated and the land use system can be made to reach their optimum composition as a whole. The algorithm for the model was provided and proved to be convergent. Linked with GIS, the dynamic simulation using this model for the spatial patterns of land use system can be quantitatively and visually illustrated. As a case study, this model had been applied in land use system of Hangzhou City, China, which was a part of work for the overall planning of Hangzhou City. The results showed that the model operates well.