近50年来铜川市气候变化特征分析

基于铜川气象观测站的气象观测数据,利用线性倾向率、线性拟合方程Mann-Kendall非参数检验等数理统计方法,对铜川市1961~2008年间的气温和降水进行详细分析,结果表明:1)近50年来,铜川市气候增温显著,各季气温增幅不一,冬季增温最大,为0.282℃/10 a,春季次之,为0.279℃/10 a,秋季增幅最小,为0.125℃/10 a。1990年代以后增暖趋势表现最明显,21世纪初增幅最大。2)近50年来铜川市全年降水量呈下降趋势,变化倾向率为-11.348mm/10 a,其中:冬季和夏季降水量呈增加趋势,而春季和秋季呈缓慢减少趋势,但降水的减少趋势大于增大趋势,总体降水量减少。3)铜川市平均气温在1990年代后期发生了由低温到高温的突变,而降水没有发生突变,表现出在波动中减少的特点。

Characteristics of climate change in Tongchuan since recent 50 years

Based on the meteorological data observed by Tongchuan meteorological stations,and used Linear trend rate,Linear regression equation,and Mann-Kendall non-parameter method statistical methods,we analyzed the change characteristics of air temperature and precipitation in Tongchuan since recent 50 years.The main conclusions were as follows:(1) There was a significant climate warming trend in Tongchuan,of which winter is the biggest extent,for 0.282 ℃ / 10a,following was spring,for 0.279℃/10a,autumn was the least extent for 0.125℃/10a.The warming was the most remarkable after the 1990s,and the largest increase range appeared in recent years of the beginning of 21st century.(2) the precipitation had a descending trend and the linear trend rate was-11.348mm/10a in the recently 50 Years.Precipitation in winter and summer showed an increasing trend,while in spring and autumn with a slow decreasing trend,but the decreasing trend was larger than increasing,so the overall precipitation had a descending trend.(3) The average temperature in Tongchuan occurred a climate jump from low to high temperature in the late 1990s,while not in precipitation.Therefore,there were differences in the climate in different areas.