基于GIS的川东北地区人口分布时空演变特征

为了研究成渝城市群建设和发展对川东北地区人口分布的影响,基于川东北地区2000—2014年人口数据,利用空间自相关和人口重心迁移模型对川东北地区人口分布时空演变进行分析。结果表明：（1）从人口总量变化来看,2000—2014年川东北地区人口数量增加了195.1万人,年均增长率达5.56‰;（2）川东北地区的人口主要集中在南充市、广安市和达州市西南方向的部分县域,即川东北地区的东南方向;（3）全局空间自相关结果表明,川东北地区的人口在空间上呈正相关,空间集聚性显著;从局部来看,2000—2014年,人口空间聚集的局部特征逐渐减弱。2014年,局部聚类不显著;（4）2000—2014年,川东北地区人口重心总体上表现为由西北方向向东南方向迁移的趋势。

Population Distribution in Northeastern Sichuan: Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics Based on GIS

To study the influence of the construction and development of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration on the population distribution in northeast Sichuan, based on the population data from 2000 to 2014, we analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution of population distribution in the region by using the spatial autocorrelation and the models of population center migration. The results showed that (1) from the perspective of the total population change, the population of northeastern Sichuan increased by 1.951 million from 2000 to 2014 with an average annual growth rate of 5.56‰; (2) the population of northeastern Sichuan was mainly concentrated in Nanchong, Guang’an and some counties in southwest Dazhou, namely, the southeast of the region; (3) the overall spatial autocorrelation results showed that: the population of northeastern Sichuan was positively correlated in space, and the spatial aggregation was remarkable; while from a local point of view, the local characteristics of population spatial aggregation gradually weakened during 2000-2014, and in 2014, local clustering was not significant; (4) from 2000 to 2014, the population center in northeastern Sichuan showed a trend of migration from the northwest to the southeast.