气候变化对临沂小麦越冬期变化的影响

为了研究气候变化对临沂小麦越冬期的变化影响，合理应对气候变化，提高当地小麦生产能力，利用临沂气象台1981—2010年小麦发育期观测资料和气象观测资料，采用统计分析方法，分析临沂小麦越冬期期间各气象因素和越冬期变化特征，并利用灰色关联度法分析影响小麦越冬期的主要气象因子。结果表明：临沂市小麦越冬期间各种气象要素也均发生不同程度的变化，1981—2010年临沂冬小麦越冬期日平均气温平均升高0.3℃/10 a，升温趋势较为明显；降水量的平均变化倾向率为-2.8 mm/10 a，有减少趋势；越冬期日照时数的平均变化倾向率为-32.9 h/10 a，有明显减少趋势。临沂小麦越冬开始期平均推迟1.5 d/10 a，返青期平均提前1.6 d/10 a，导致整个越冬期平均缩短3.3 d/10 a；期间日照时数的变化是影响越冬期的主要气象因素。

The Impact of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Overwintering Stage of Linyi

In order to research the impact of climate change on winter wheat overwintering stage of Linyi, reasonable response to climate change, to improve local wheat production capacity, the author analyzed the wheat overwintering period and variations of meteorological factors in Linyi City by using statistical analysis method, and made an assay of the influence of the main meteorological factors during the wheat overwintering period to exploit the method of gray correlation degree analysis. The data included measurements and meteorological observations of wheat developmental phase from 1981 to 2010. The results showed that many meteorological elements changed in varying degrees and characteristics of phases were obvious during the stage. In the research period, daily average temperature raised 0.3℃/10 a, whose warming trend was evident. Precipitation average variation trend rate was -2.8 mm/10 a, and for sunshine hours, it was 32.9 h/10 a. Both of them were inclined to decrease. The beginning of wheat overwintering period delayed 1.5 d/10 a, in average while recovering date advanced 1.6 d/10 a. It led to shorten 3.3 d/10 a in overwintering period. Sunshine hours were the main meteorological factors during overwintering period.