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基于信息技术的棉花风险预警系统及应用
引用本文:卢秀茹,代学钢,王健. 基于信息技术的棉花风险预警系统及应用[J]. 农业工程学报, 2007, 23(9): 159-163
作者姓名:卢秀茹  代学钢  王健
作者单位:河北农业大学图书馆,保定,071001;河北软件职业技术学院,保定,071001
基金项目:河北省科技厅软科学项目
摘    要:为对棉花生产、需求、库存、进出口和市场行情进行动态监测、分析和预报,降低棉花生产经营风险,该文设计了基于信息技术的棉花风险预警系统。在该系统中,预警系统的建立以获取信息为基础,利用信息可以减少不确定性以规避各种棉花生产与经营风险,因此,该文系统地阐述了棉花预警系统的设计思路,分析了棉花预警系统的结构、功能及实际应用。通过系统地分析影响棉花风险形成的各种含有不确定性的供求因素,并借助于现代经济学原理,认为棉花的风险最终体现的是市场风险,因此,本预警系统的关键控制变量选择了棉花价格,当市场价格大于等于均衡价格时,不发出预警警报;当市场价格在保本点和均衡点之间,发出轻级亏损警报;当市场价格小于保本点发出重级亏损警报。以此作为预警的依据,实现棉花风险管理,指导棉农调整种植结构,促进棉花可持续发展。

关 键 词:信息技术  棉花  风险  预警系统
文章编号:1002-6819(2007)9-0159-05
收稿时间:2006-11-17
修稿时间:2006-11-17

Early-warning system of cotton risk based on information technology and its application
Lu Xiuru,Dai Xuegang and Wang Jian. Early-warning system of cotton risk based on information technology and its application[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2007, 23(9): 159-163
Authors:Lu Xiuru  Dai Xuegang  Wang Jian
Affiliation:Library of Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071001, China;Hebei Software Vocational Technology College, Baoding 071001, China;Library of Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071001, China
Abstract:The risk early-warning system was designed based on information technology in order to reduce the risk of cotton production and management. The goal to develop the early-warning system was to monitor, analyze and forecast dynamically production, demand, stock, inputs and exports, and make market analysis of cotton. During setting up the system, first, based on information to avoid all kinds of cotton risks of production and management in order to reduce uncertainty, the design idea, structure, function and its application of cotton risk early-warning were analyzed in this paper. Second, the supply and demand factors including uncertainty which influence the form of cotton risk were analyzed, and the market risk was thought to be the last embody, through the modern economic theory. So the cotton price was selected to be the key control variable in this early-warning system. Alarm should not be given when the market price is higher than the equilibrium price; Light alarm should be given when the market price is between the equilibrium price and protection point; Heavy losing alarm should be given when market price is lower than the protection point price. The cotton farmers can be guided according to the former information to readjust planting structure and to realize risk management and promote the sustainable development of cotton.
Keywords:information technology   cotton   risk   early-warning system
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