基于信息技术的棉花风险预警系统及应用

为对棉花生产、需求、库存、进出口和市场行情进行动态监测、分析和预报，降低棉花生产经营风险，该文设计了基于信息技术的棉花风险预警系统。在该系统中，预警系统的建立以获取信息为基础，利用信息可以减少不确定性以规避各种棉花生产与经营风险，因此，该文系统地阐述了棉花预警系统的设计思路，分析了棉花预警系统的结构、功能及实际应用。通过系统地分析影响棉花风险形成的各种含有不确定性的供求因素，并借助于现代经济学原理，认为棉花的风险最终体现的是市场风险，因此，本预警系统的关键控制变量选择了棉花价格，当市场价格大于等于均衡价格时，不发出预警警报；当市场价格在保本点和均衡点之间，发出轻级亏损警报；当市场价格小于保本点发出重级亏损警报。以此作为预警的依据，实现棉花风险管理，指导棉农调整种植结构，促进棉花可持续发展。

Early-warning system of cotton risk based on information technology and its application

The risk early-warning system was designed based on information technology in order to reduce the risk of cotton production and management. The goal to develop the early-warning system was to monitor, analyze and forecast dynamically production, demand, stock, inputs and exports, and make market analysis of cotton. During setting up the system, first, based on information to avoid all kinds of cotton risks of production and management in order to reduce uncertainty, the design idea, structure, function and its application of cotton risk early-warning were analyzed in this paper. Second, the supply and demand factors including uncertainty which influence the form of cotton risk were analyzed, and the market risk was thought to be the last embody, through the modern economic theory. So the cotton price was selected to be the key control variable in this early-warning system. Alarm should not be given when the market price is higher than the equilibrium price; Light alarm should be given when the market price is between the equilibrium price and protection point; Heavy losing alarm should be given when market price is lower than the protection point price. The cotton farmers can be guided according to the former information to readjust planting structure and to realize risk management and promote the sustainable development of cotton.