岱岳区春季低温发生特点及风险评价

利用岱岳区1981～2010年近30a春季的低温气象资料，分析当地春季晚霜冻发生的特点，对下辖的10个乡镇气象站2006—2010年共5a的气象资料进行插值和年代外推，并进行春季低温风险评价和区划。结果表明：岱岳区3月和4月低温灾害综合风险的分布大致相同，北部和东部山区的祝阳镇、徂徕镇等乡镇（街道）为高度风险区，马庄镇、房村镇等城市近郊为中度风险区，粥店街道、满庄镇、大汶口镇等乡镇（街道）多为轻度风险区。研究结果可为因地制宜制定防灾减灾规划和农业种植规划提供科学依据。

Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Low Temperature in Spring in Daiyue District, Taian

Based on the meteorological data of low temperature in Daiyue District,Taian from 1981 to 2010,the characteristics of late frost in spring were analyzed,the risk assessment and zoning of low temperature in spring were carried out according to the meteorological data from 10 towns from 2006 to 2010 using the interpolation and extrapolation methods.The results showed that the regional distribution of low temperature disaster integrated risk in March were similar to that in April in Daiyue District.Zhuyang Town and Culai Town in the north and east mountain areas belonged to the high risk zones,Mazhuang Town and Fangcun Town near the suburbs belonged to the medium risk zones,and Zhoudian Street,Manzhuang Town and Dawenkou Town belonged to the low risk zones.This research could provid scientific basis for making the disaster prevention and reduction plan and agricultural planting plan according to local conditions.