鲁西南地区近50年气候变化特征及R/S分析

为了全面分析鲁西南地区近50年的气候变化特征及未来趋势发展，为该区域合理利用气候资源及农业生产提供科学参考，采用线性分析、M-K法和R/S方法相结合，对鲁西南地区1961-2010年的气温、降水量和日照时数的变化特点及未来趋势进行分析。结果表明：气温在过去50年间呈极显著的上升趋势，增加率为0.16℃/10 a，并在1995发生增温突变，同时其Hurst值为0.81，说明当地未来气温上升的趋势还将持续。年降水量在过去50年间变化趋势不显著，其中20世纪60年代中期和21世纪初突变比较频繁，其Hurst值为0.62，说明当地未来降水的变化特点不稳定，降水量有可能增多或减少。日照时数在过去50年间以112.05 h/10 a的速率呈极显著减少，1985年是个突变点，其Hurst值为0.96，说明当地未来日照时数的持续性很强，保持继续减少的趋势。研究区未来的气候变化趋势为气温继续升高，降水不足、日照减少，总体来说，向暖干化趋势发展。

Analysis of Climate Change Characteristics and R/S in Southwestern Shandong Province in the Last 50 Years

In order to overall analysis the climatic change and future trends in the last 50 years,providing scientific reference for reasonably utilizing climatic resources and agricultural production,by using linear-trend,Mann-Kendall and rescaled range analysis （R/S） method,the change characteristics and the future trends of the annual average temperature,the annual precipitation and the annual sunshine duration were analyzed in southwestern Shandong Province from 1961 to 2010.The results showed that the temperature increased in the last 50 years with a very significant change rate by 0.16℃ per 10 years,and an abrupt change occurred in 1995,while the Hurst index was 0.77 which indicated that there existed obvious Hurst phenomenon in the future.The annual precipitation was no obvious change,many abrupt changes occurred in the middle of 1980s and the beginning of the 21 st century,while the Hurst index was 0.62 which indicated that the trend were great random and would change or remain stable in the future.The annual sunshine duration decreased with a very significant change rate by 112.05.46 h per 10 years,and an abrupt change occurred in 1985,while the Hurst index was 0.95 which indicated that there reduced obvious Hurst phenomenon in the future.The forecast of climatic change tendency were the temperature continued to increase,annual precipitation shortage and sunshine reduced.In general,the whole study area showed warming and drying trend.