基于logistic和灾减率方法制作玉米产量的预测

利用多元回归预报模型与灾减率相结合探讨粮食产量预报方法。依据本溪县玉米单产和气候资料，利用logistic方法建立玉米趋势产量序列，将分离的气象产量转换为相对气象产量，进行相关筛选预报因子，组建预测模型。结果表明：运用logistic方法构建的玉米趋势产量序列，提高了趋势产量拟合的精度；选取气象因子具有一定的生物学意义，增强了预测模型的科学性；多元回归预测模型与灾减率订正预测玉米单产正确率达90%。为粮食产量预报的定量化和精细化提供科学的依据。

Prediction of Maize Yield Based on Logistic and Disaster Decrement Rate Method

The multiple regression prediction model and the disaster decrement rate were applied discussion of grain yield forecast method. Based on corn yield and the related climatic data in Benxi County, the Logistic was used in the establishment of corn tendency output sequence. The separated meteorological output was transformed into the relative meteorological output, the related screening predictor was carried out, and the forecast model was set up. The results showed that, corn tendency output sequence constructed by the Logistic, could increase the precision of tendency output fitting. The selection meteorological factor had certain biology significance, strengthened the scientific characteristics of forecast model. The multiple regressions forecast model and the disaster decrement rate revising forecast corn yield accuracy reached 90%. It provided the scientific basis for grain yield forecast＇s quantification and the fine refinement.