黑龙江省玉米初霜冻致灾临界气象条件风险区划

为了开展黑龙江省玉米初霜冻致灾临界气象条件风险区划技术研究，以期指导生产者合理安排作物品种布局，减轻初霜冻灾害造成的损失，以晚熟玉米为例，从确定初霜冻致灾临界气象条件出发，计算玉米初霜冻致灾临界气象条件在安全成熟前发生的概率，作为风险指数进行风险区划，基于GIS理论绘制风险区划图。结果表明：玉米初霜冻的风险区的分布具有2个明显特征：一是呈维向分布，自北向南随着维度的降低风险变小；二是随着地势的增高风险增大。大兴安岭、黑河在高纬度和高海拔的双重影响下，成为初霜冻风险最高的区域；而松嫩平原和三江平原的大部不仅海拔低，且处于维度相对较低的区域，因此是初霜冻的低风险区。通过对气候变暖前后风险区划图的分析发现，气候变暖使得玉米适宜种植区的面积扩大，一定程度上降低了玉米初霜冻灾害的风险。

The Risk Zoning of Critical Meteorological Conditions of Corn Early Frost Disaster in Heilongjiang Province

In order to research the early frost disaster risk of corn in Heilongjiang Province for guiding the rational crop breed layout and reducing hazard of early frost disasters,the author took the corn as an example,from the identification of early frost disaster critical weather conditions,calculation of corn frost disaster critical meteorological conditions in the mature safety before the occurrence of the probability as a risk index risk division,drawing risk zoning map based on the theory of GIS.The results showed that corn frost risk distribution area had two distinct characteristics：one was the zonal distribution from north to south risk decreased along with latitude;the second was the risk increasing with the height increased.Daxing ＇ anling,Heihe became the highest risk areas under the dual influence of high latitude and high elevation.Songnen plain and Sanjiang plain were the low risk areas because of the low altitude and relatively low latitude.Based on the climate warming and risk zoning map analysis,climate warming made corn planting area expand,and made a certain extent reduce of corn early frost disaster risk.