东北地区杨树烂皮病气象预报模型研究

为了研究东北地区杨树烂皮病气象预报预警技术，以2002-2008年东北地区杨树烂皮病发生程度为研究对象，利用相应气象资料，在相关分析、逐步回归和逐步判别分析方法的基础上，构建东北地区杨树烂皮病气象适宜度预报模型，并将气象适宜度指数划分为非常适宜、适宜、基本适宜、不适宜4个级别，以反映气象条件对杨树烂皮病发生发展的适宜程度。结果表明：东北地区杨树烂皮病发病面积与冬季气温日较差≥15℃的天数、春季和初夏平均气温呈正相关，冬季气温日较差越大、春季和初夏气温越高，越有利于杨树烂皮病发生发展；入冬冻害、春季温湿条件对东北地区杨树烂皮病发生发展起主导作用，气温、空气湿度与杨树烂皮病发生程度关系最为密切；影响东北地区杨树烂皮病发生发展的关键气象因子分别是3月下旬风速、3月空气相对湿度、4月温湿系数、3月和5月及4月上下旬气温、上年11-12月气温日较差≥15℃的天数。预报模型对2002-2008年的历史拟合和重发生年2009年预报取得了较好的效果，分级和分省外延预报平均准确率均在75%以上，3省预报准确率顺序为：黑龙江>吉林>辽宁。

Study on Meteorological Forecasting Model of Valsa sordida Nits in Northeast China

In order to study the technology of meteorological forecasting and warning of Valsa sordida Nits in northeast China,the meteorological suitability forecasting model of Valsa sordida Nits for northeast China was established.The methods of correlation analysis,stepwise regression and stepwise differentiation were used in establishing model based on the data for occurrence degree caused by Valsa sordida Nits in northeast China from 2002 to 2008 and the corresponding meteorological elements.Furthermore,the meteorological suitability index was divided into 4 grades of very suitable,suitable,basic suitable,not suitable,which could reflect the suitable degree of meteorological condition for occurrence and development of Valsa sordida Nits.The results showed that the occurring area of Valsa sordida Nits was positively correlated to the days of ≥15℃ of daily air temperature range in winter,average air temperature in spring and early summer.It was favorable to the development of Valsa sordida Nits as daily air temperature range in winter,air temperature in spring and early summer increased.The conditions of freezing injury in winter,temperature and air humidity in spring were the main impacting factors to the occurrence and development of Valsa sordida Nits,air temperature and humidity were mostly related to the occurring area of Valsa sordida Nits.The key meteorological factors which affected the occurrence and development of Valsa sordida Nits in northeast China were wind speed in late March,air relative humidity in March,temperature-humidity coefficient in April,the air temperature in March and May, and also early and last April,the days of ≥15℃ of daily air temperature range from November to December. The forecasting model of meteorological suitability fitted well with the historical data of 2002-2008 and gave good results with forecasting accuracy above 75% for northeast China and for 3 provinces respectively with the order of HeilongjiangJilinLiaoning,when used in disease trial forecast in 2009 with high occurring area.