基于气象因子的冬小麦发育期预报模型

冬小麦发育期预报是农业气象服务的主要内容之一。本文以光、温、水气象因子为基础，以位于河北省中南部冬麦区的南宫站为例，选取1991-2010年冬小麦全生育期农业气象观测数据和冬小麦生育期资料，分析光、温、水气象因子累积速率与冬小麦发育速率的相关性，建立各生育阶段冬小麦发育速率预测模型。结果表明：在研究区，光照和水分因子不是冬小麦发育速率的限制条件，不作为发育期预测模型的因子；温度因子是影响冬小麦发育速率的主导因子，返青至各阶段的有效积温累积速率与对应的发育速率的相关系数，较单一生育阶段的相关系数显著提高（P＜0.05），冬前有效积温与返青-拔节、返青-抽穗阶段的发育速率显著相关（P＜0.05）；以相关显著的温度因子为自变量建立的4个阶段发育速率预测模型，模拟最大绝对误差为7d，返青-拔节平均绝对误差为3d，返青-抽穗为2.8d，返青-乳熟3.3d，返青-成熟2.2d，模型模拟精度较高，可以满足农业气象业务服务的需求。

Prediction Model of Winter Wheat Development Stages Based on Meteorological Factors

The forecast for winter wheat development stages is one of the main contents for agro-meteorological services. The correlation of the accumulation rate of meteorological factors including sunshine hours, temperature, water and winter wheat growth rate during 1991-2010 at Nangong station, which is located in south central of Hebei province, was analyzed, and winter wheat growth rate forecasting models for different development stages were established. The results showed that sunshine hours and moisture were not the limited factors of winter wheat growth rate in this region, but temperature was a dominant factor affecting the rate of winter wheat development. The correlation coefficient between effective accumulated rate and the growth rate of turn-green stage to other stages was improved significantly than that of any single stage (P＜0.05). There were significant correlations between the effective accumulated temperature before winter and the growth rate of turn-green to heading stage (P＜0.05). The model simulated results of maximum absolute error of the development rate forecast for four stages of winter wheat based on temperature was 7 days, and the mean absolute error was 3 days, 2.8 days, 3.3 days, 2.2 days from turn-green to jointing stage, turn-green to heading stage, turn-green to milk-ripe stage, and turn-green to maturity stage, respectively. The model could meet the needs of agro-meteorological operational services.