Models for the dispersal in Australia of the arbovirus vector, Culicoides brevitarsis Kieffer (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae)

Culicoides brevitarsis is the main biting midge responsible for the transmission of bluetongue and Akabane viruses to livestock in Australia. Models are given for its dispersal after winter from endemic areas at the southern limit of its distribution in New South Wales (NSW); the models might also be applicable elsewhere. Model 1 shows that dispersal can be explained by distance from a key point just outside the endemic area in mid-northern/northern coastal NSW. The model provides probability data for times of first occurrence at sites within regions down the southern coastal plain or up the Hunter Valley towards (but rarely reaching) the western slopes and tablelands. Model 2 shows that the movement depends on temperature and wind speed from northerly and easterly directions. Preliminary data also are given to suggest a relationship between density in the endemic area and the maximum distance that C. brevitarsis can travel in a given year. The models can be linked to other information which in combination can provide probabilities for winter survival outside the endemic area, times of occurrence at sites where it cannot survive winter and times when activity ceases naturally at these sites at the end of the season. This information can be used to predict the potential for virus transmission and indicate zones of seasonal freedom from both vector and virus for the export of livestock.