河西走廊东部麦红吸浆虫发生的气象预测

以河西走廊东部1998—2007年麦红吸浆虫和气象资料为基础，分析了麦红吸浆虫的发生关键期、动态和气象成因，运用SPSS统计软件建立了气象预测模型。结果表明：（1）影响河西走廊东部麦红吸浆虫发生的主要气象因子是温度和水分，特别是后冬（2月）温度越低麦红吸浆虫破茧、化蛹、成虫始见越迟；2—5月水分因子促进麦红吸浆虫的发生发展；10cm地温与麦红吸浆虫的活动相关性显著，10cm地温指标高于平原地区渡河两岸6～8℃。（2）麦红吸浆虫越冬基数受9月平均最低温度制约显著。（3）1月极端最低地温和6月中旬-7月上句平均气温是影响当年麦红吸浆虫发生面积的前期和后期的主要气象影响因子。

Meteorological Prediction for Occurrence of Sitodiplosis mosellana Gehin in East Hexi Corridor

Based on the meteorological data and the occurrences of the Sitodiplosis mosellana Gehin in the East Hexi Corridor from 1998 to 2007 ,the occurrence dynamic, the critical period and the meteorological causes for the occurrences of the Sitodiplosis mosellana Gehin were analyzed. The meteorological prediction models were built by using SPSS software. The results showed that the main meteorological factors affected the occurrences of the Sitodiplosis mosellana Gehin in the East Hexi Corridor were temperature and precipitation. The lower winter temperature in February was, the later cocoon breaking, pupating and imaqo beginning of the Sitodiplosis mosellana Gehin were. The precipitation from February to May was favorable to the occurrence and development of the Sitodiplosis mosellana Gehin. The soil temperature at the 10cm soil depth was significantly related to the activities of the Sitodiplosis mosellana Gehin, while it was 6 - 8℃ higher than in the plain area of the river banks. The cardinal number of overwintering of the Sitodiplosis mosellana Gehin was obviously restricted by the average minimum temperature in September. The extreme minimum ground temperature in January and the average temperature in the second ten days of June to the first ten days of July were main meteorological factors affected occurrences of Sitodiplosis mosellana Gehin for the prior and later period in a year.