甘肃金塔县种植业结构对气候变暖的响应

为了研究地处西北极端干旱区脆弱气候带的甘肃金塔种植业结构对气候变暖的响应，利用金塔气象站1971—2012 年地面气象观测资料，采用温度距平时间序列及线性趋势拟合等方法，对年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温和≥10℃积温变化趋势进行分析。结果表明，近42 年来金塔县年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温均呈波动上升趋势，≥10℃积温呈明显的增加趋势；金塔县种植业结构对气候变暖的响应明显：20 世纪70 年代中期—90 年代中期，当地主栽农作物以粮食作物为主，1998年粮食、棉花等经济作物种植结构发生了根本性变化，进入21 世纪以来，农作物种植面积的布局顺序改变为棉花等经济作物、粮食。由此可得：气候变暖对金塔种植业结构改变有重大影响。

Response of Planting Structure in Jinta County to Climate Warming

The paper aims to study the response of planting structure in Jinta County, which located in extreme arid area fragile climatic zones in Gansu Province of northwest China, to climate warming. The authors used the surface meteorological data of 1971-2012 from Jinta Weather Station, and the temperature anomaly time series and the linear trend fitting method, to analyze the variation trend of annual mean temperature, the mean maximum temperature, the mean minimum temperature and ≥10℃ accumulated temperature. The results showed that: the annual mean temperature, the mean maximum temperature, the mean minimum temperature showed an upward trend with fluctuation for nearly 42 years in Jinta County, ≥10℃ accumulated temperature had a significant increasing trend. The response of planting structure in Jinta County to climate warming was significant, from the mid of 1970s to the mid of 1990s, local main crops were food crops; in 1998, the planting structure of grain, cotton and other cash crops had fundamental changes; in the 21st century, the layout order of crops’planting area was cotton and grain. Thus, global warming had a significant impact on the structure change of crop production.