| 近55年来新疆阿勒泰地区气温变化特征及趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 彭玉刚,崔伟敏. 近55年来新疆阿勒泰地区气温变化特征及趋势分析[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2011, 0(13): 7803-7806 |
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| 作者姓名： | 彭玉刚 崔伟敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆新水水利科技发展有限公司;河北工程技术高等专科学校; |
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| 摘 要： | 利用新疆阿勒泰地区1954~2008年月平均气温资料,探讨了阿勒泰地区气温多时间尺度特征及其未来的变化趋势。结果表明：阿勒泰地区气温系列变异系数为24.7%~40.0%,富蕴气温年际变化相对剧烈,变异系数40.0%,极值比达15.04;存在4、准8及17年的主周期;20世纪80年代以前处于冷期,均温3.34℃,80年代以来气温逐渐上升,哈巴河年均气温达5.84℃,为阿勒泰地区最高,富蕴则为最低;各时段气温均呈显著或极显著升高趋势（通过P=0.05或P=0.01的显著性检验）,冬季升温最明显幅度,每10年达1.27~1.98℃,夏季升温速率最小,每10年为0.27~0.65℃,年均气温变化速率每10年为0.54℃。
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| 关 键 词： | 气温 趋势分析 小波分析 气候趋势系数法 新疆阿勒泰地区 |
The Research of Air Temperature Variation Characteristics and Trend in Altay Prefecture in Xinjiang Province in Recent 55 Years |
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| PENG Yu-gang et al. The Research of Air Temperature Variation Characteristics and Trend in Altay Prefecture in Xinjiang Province in Recent 55 Years[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2011, 0(13): 7803-7806 |
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| Authors: | PENG Yu-gang et al |
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| Affiliation: | PENG Yu-gang et al(Xinjiang Limited Liability Company of New Water Hydraulic Science Development,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830011) |
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| Abstract: | By dint of the monthly average temperature data in Altay Prefecture of Xinjiang province during 1954-2008,the multi-temporal scale characteristics and future changes trend of temperature in Altay area were discussed.Results suggested that the changes coefficient of temperature in Altay Prefecture was 24.7%~40.0%,having relatively strong interannual changes of temperature.The changes coefficient was 40.0% and the extreme value was up to 15.04,having 4,8 and 17 years of main cycles approximately.The one befor... |
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| Keywords: | Air temperature Tendency analysis Wavelet analysis Climatic trend coefficient method Altay Prefecture Xinjiang Province |
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