| Abstract: | A stochastic computer simulation model was constructed to predict the reproductive performance of beef cows as a function of the postpartum interval from calving to first estrus and the single-service conception rate. Phenotypic values for single-service conception rate were obtained by truncation of an assumed underlying normal phenotypic distribution at a point corresponding to a cumulative frequency of conception of .70. The underlying phenotypic distribution was derived as the sum of independent, normally-distributed additive genetic, permanent environmental and temporary environmental effects. The phenotypic frequency distribution for postpartum interval has been shown to be skewed toward large intervals. This distribution was simulated by combining normal distributions of additive genetic and permanent environmental effects with a strongly skewed Pearson III gamma distribution of temporary environmental effects. The simulated management system involved a 63-d breeding season, thereby allowing females up to three opportunities to conceive. The reproductive outputs that were simulated from postpartum interval and single-service conception rate included date of first service, first-service conception rate, number of services received, annual conception rate, calving date and postpartum interval. A normally-distributed 205-d weaning weight was also simulated and converted to an actual weaning weight by adjustment for calving date. General simulation results in terms of frequencies, means and standard deviations were compared with values found in the literature and found to provide a reasonable model of bovine reproductive performance. |
