安徽省淮河流域农业旱灾风险正态云模型评估

为合理评估农业旱灾风险,文章从危险性、暴露性、灾损敏感性、抗旱能力四个方面分析安徽省各地区农业旱灾风险等级,建立正态云评估模型。结果表明,淮北、亳州、宿州、蚌埠、阜阳农业旱灾风险为中险;淮南、合肥淮河流域、滁州淮河流域、六安淮河流域为轻险。评估模型可实现评语与评估指标值间不确定映射,体现旱灾评估随机性,为安徽省淮河流域农业旱灾防控提供科学决策参考。

Agricultural drought disaster risk normal cloud model assessment in Anhui Province Huai River Basin

In order to evaluate the risk of agricultural drought disaster scientifically,and to provide the basis for decision-making of agricultural drought prevention and relief in Huai River Basin of Anhui Province,the agricultural drought disaster evaluation model based on normal cloud model was established.Model considered four assessment subsystem to analysis regional risk level,namely,hazard subsystems,the exposure subsystem,vulnerability subsystem and drought resistance subsystem.The results showed that Huaibei,Bozhou,Suzhou,Bengbu,Fuyang were at middle risk,Huainan,Huai River Basin in Hefei,Huai River Basin in Chuzhou and Huai River Basin in Liu'an were at weak risk.Evaluation model achieved the uncertain mapping between the comments and the evaluation index value and reflected the randomness of drought disaster assessment.The results could provide scientific reference for the prevention and control of agricultural drought disaster in Huai River Basin of Anhui Province.