随机气候生成器在黄土高原的适用性检验

 为进一步检验水蚀预报模型WEPP在黄土高原的适用性,并提供必要的数据准备,根据安塞水土保持综合试验站1986—2003年的日序列的降雨量、最高温度、最低温度和平均风速的实测值及全美范围内选择参照站得到的其他气象因子,对随机气候生成器在黄土高原的适用性进行了检验。结果表明:随机气候生成器能够较好地模拟单个气象因子,并未考虑各个气象因子之间的相互关系;同时,能准确地模拟年降水及其月分布,日最高温度、日最低温度的月分布,而风速模拟值的月均值、标准差普遍高于实测值的月均值、标准差。为此,选择参考站点时应综合考虑各个气象因子。按月计算的降水降水的概率和不降水降水的概率的模拟月均值比实测值偏低。

Applicability test of CLIGEN in Loess Plateau

CLIGEN is a stochastic climate generator,based on the daily observed values of rainfall,the maximum and minimum temperature and average wind velocity from 1986 to 2003 at comprehensive experimental station of soil and water conservation in Ansai and other climate factors gained by corresponding station all over the American,whose applicability in Loess Plateau is tested.It is important to run and prove the applicability of water erosion forecast model WEPP in Loess Plaueau.The results showed that the single climate factor can be simulated preferably by CLIGEN if neglecting the relation within climate factors.Annual precipitation and its monthly distribution and monthly distribution of daily maximum and minimum temperature can be simulated accurately,however,monthly average value and standard deviation of simulating value of wind velocity is generally higher that of observed values.The monthly average simulated value of probability between precipitation and non-precipitation is lower than that of observed value,it is the same to which between non-precipitation,and precipitation.Therefore,the climate factors should be analyzed synthetically in selecting experimental stations.