中国生猪价格波动的经济学解释

生猪养殖业在中国具有举足轻重的地位。近年来生猪市场价格波动频繁，对国民经济平稳运行和产业良性发展具有一定影响。对相关文献进行梳理可知，生猪价格波动具有内生性因素和外生性因素，进而文章提出以经济学理论研究生猪价格波动的成因。蛛网模型是解释农产品价格波动的主要工具。以2000年1月至2012年7月的数据为分析对象，发现中国生猪价格波动呈现出整体发散，但局部封闭、收敛的“蛛网紊乱”状态，认为这与中国宏观经济环境的变化，尤其是以利率为代表的货币政策的变化有密切关联。通过仔猪和饲料价格变化分析养殖户的行为，以及根据宏观劳动需求与产量供给分析真实工资与生猪养殖行业之间的关系，是2种探索性的解释，有助于弥补蛛网模型的不足。

Economic Explanations on Fluctuation of Pig Price in China

Pig farming industry has an important position in China. The frequent fluctuation of pig price in recent years has certain impact on smooth running of national economy and healthy development of pig farming industry. Known from studying the relevant literatures, there were both endogenous and exogenous factors in fluctuation of pig price, and then the paper proposed to study the causes of fluctuation of pig price using theories of economics. Cobweb model is a principal tool to explain price fluctuation of agricultural products. By analyzing data from January, 2000 to July, 2012, it is found that the fluctuation of pig price in China presents a state of “cobweb disturbance” showing divergent case in general while convergent case and closed case in certain periods of time. It is believed that this phenomenon was closely related to change of macroeconomic environment in China, particularly the change of monetary policy represented by the interest rate. By analyzing pig farmer’s behavior to price change of piglet and feed, and analyzing relation between real wage and pig farming industry from the angle of macro labor demand and goods supply, the paper brought up two new exploratory explanations which were helpful to supplement the deficiency of cobweb model.