基于微观视角的现代品牌农业成长动力学模型

为了运用适当的科学方法，对影响现代品牌农业成长的主要因素进行综合分析，揭示其成长规律，预测其发展趋势，从生产、销售、消费3个方面，遴选了影响现代品牌农业成长的主要因子，并基于微观经济理论和系统动力学方法，构建了现代品牌农业成长动力学模型，实现了对现代品牌农业成长性的模型化表述。以烟台苹果为例进行实证研究，预测了未来烟台苹果成长能力变化，提炼了决定未来烟台苹果成长性的关键因素。结果表明，现代品牌农业成长动力学模型能够在一定程度上满足现代品牌农业成长性动力学的解释与分析要求；未来20年，烟台苹果的成长性主要体现在销售额和利润的增长，而决定其成长性的根本因素是烟台苹果品牌的维护、拓展和创新。

Dynamics Model of Modern Brand Agriculture Growth Based on the Microeconomic View

In order to analyze the main factors comprehensively that impact on modern brand agriculture growth by a scientific approach, reveal its growth patterns and predict its developing trend, the author diagnosed key drivers of brand agriculture growth by analyzing the process of production, marketing and consumption of modern brand agriculture and constructed a Brand Agriculture Growth Dynamics Model (BAGDM) based on the microeconomics equations and system dynamics modeling approaches. Applying the BAGDM, the author implemented a case study to predict the growth ability indicators change of Yantai apple and pointed out the key drivers of the growth of Yantai apple brand. The research results indicated that the BAGDM owned the abilities to meet the challenge of explaining and analyzing the dynamics mechanism of brand agriculture growth. And in the future 20 years, the growth of Yantai apple mainly will lie in the increases of sales revenue and profit and the core drivers of the growth of Yantai apple will be the maintenance, extension and innovation of its brand.