近50年广西日照时数时空变化特征分析

为了能更好地指导广西地区的农业生产，需要对广西日照时数的时空变化特征做进一步研究，利用广西89个气象台站1961—2010年日照资料，运用GIS技术、气候倾向率以及M-K突变检验方法，对广西近50年来日照时数的突变特征及时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明：近50年广西区域年日照时数总体呈下降趋势，其气候倾向率为-35.1 h/10 a，1963年日照时数最多（达1905.6 h），1997年最少（仅1225.1 h），两者相差680.5 h。年日照时数的突变时间为1975年，其中1981年后日照时数进入显著下降阶段，下降一直持续到1997年，之后日照时数呈回升趋势。不同时期各地区间日照时数变化的趋势和幅度各有差异，年代际变化特征表明，除2000s相对于1990s是呈上升趋势之外，其余各年代际日照时数变化大部地区都呈下降趋势，桂东部分地区以及西林等少数地方每10年呈规律性的交替变化。

The Analysis on Sunshine Duration Spatial and Temporal Variations over Guangxi in Recent 50 Years

In order to guide the Guangxi region’s agricultural production more effectively, it needed to require further study the temporal and spatial variation of sunshine duration in Guangxi in recent years. The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of sunshine duration was analyzed by using GIS technique, climatic inclination rate and Mann-Kendall catastrophe test, based on the sunshine duration of 89 meteorological stations over Guangxi in recent 50 years. The results showed that: the Guangxi’s annual sunshine duration over Guangxi in recent 50 years had a decreasing trend, and the climate inclination rate of annual sunshine duration was -35.1 h/10 a. The sunshine duration in 1963 was the largest (1905.6 h), and the sunshine duration in 1997 was the least (1225.1 h), the sunshine duration in 1963 was more 680.5 h than the one in 1997. The abrupt change of annual sunshine duration occurred in 1975, and the sunshine duration reached a significant decreasing period which continued until 1997, then the sunshine duration had an increasing trend. The sunshine duration in different areas and period had differences with trend and range. Interdecadal change characteristic showed that: the sunshine duration had a decreasing trend from 1990s to 2000s and it had an increasing trend in most areas among other periods in recent 50 years. Interdecadal change of the sunshine duration had a regularity of change average every decade in eastern part of Guangxi areas and a few places among Xilin.